NOAA, Hurricane Ike Five Day Forecast (Point), World, 9/4/2008
The NHC official 3/5 day forecast cone of uncertainty in shapefile format is an experimental products that the National Hurricane Center is testing during the 2008 hurricane season
. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. Based on forecasts over the previous 5 years, the entire track of a tropical cyclone can be expected to remain within the cone roughly 60-70% of the time. It is important to note that the area affected by a tropical cyclone can extend well beyond the confines of the cone enclosing the most likely track area of the center.The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone.
| Attributes | Range | Median | Mean | Standard Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lon | -76.50 - -55.80 | -62.60 | -63.67 | 6.53 |
distance east or west on the earth's surface from the prime meridian at Greenwich, England of the center of the tropcical cyclone (decimal degrees) | ||||
| Stormnum | 9.00 - 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 0.00 |
the sequential numbering of tropical cyclones for a specific forecast basin according to when the first advisory is issued | ||||
| Tcdir | 290.00 - 9999.00 | 9999.00 | 8612.00 | 3525.69 |
the best estimate of the direction that the center of a tropical cyclone is moving towards (degrees) | ||||
| Maxwind | 110.00 - 125.00 | 115.00 | 116.43 | 6.02 |
the highest 1-minute average wind (at an elevation of 10 meters without an unobstructed exposure) associated with a tropical cyclone at a particular point in time (knots) | ||||
| Validtime | Text column (no statistics available) | |||
the time in which a forecast or warning is in effect, until it is updated or superseded by a new forecast issuance | ||||
| Stormname | Text column (no statistics available) | |||
name given to each tropical cyclone for which the National Hurricane Center is writing forecast advisories | ||||
| Timezone | Text column (no statistics available) | |||
| Basin | Text column (no statistics available) | |||
the ocean where the tropical cyclone is located | ||||
| Stormtype | Text column (no statistics available) | |||
category of the tropical cyclone according to the initial intensity | ||||
| Gust | 135.00 - 155.00 | 140.00 | 142.86 | 8.25 |
a rapid fluctuation of wind speed with variations of 10 knots or more between peaks and lulls (knots) | ||||
| Advdate | Text column (no statistics available) | |||
the date in which an advisory is issued | ||||
| Tcspd | 15.00 - 9999.00 | 9999.00 | 8572.71 | 3625.56 |
the best estimate of the speed in which the center of a tropical cyclone is moving (knots) | ||||
| Datelbl | Text column (no statistics available) | |||
| Dvlbl | Text column (no statistics available) | |||
the forecasted storm type | ||||
| Tau | 0.00 - 120.00 | 36.00 | 42.86 | 36.07 |
number of hours from the forecast valid time for which a forecast is made | ||||
| Fcstprd | 72.00 - 120.00 | 120.00 | 99.43 | 24.65 |
the time interval for which the forecast of a tropical cyclone is provided in graphical format | ||||
| Lat | 22.50 - 25.00 | 23.50 | 23.44 | 0.72 |
distance north or south from the equator of the center of the tropical cyclone (decimal degrees) | ||||
| Issstatus | Text column (no statistics available) | |||
| Advisnum | Text column (no statistics available) | |||
the sequential numbering of forecast advisories for each tropical cyclone | ||||
| Mslp | 935.00 - 9999.00 | 9999.00 | 8704.14 | 3291.47 |
the estimated sea level pressure at the center of a tropical cyclone (the lowest pressure in the system in Millibars) | ||||
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